Knowing this relationship to southern districts with 30-50% BVAP is crucial because it determines whether racial redistricting helped or hindered black efforts to advance their interests in the House.
The absence of data for 30-50% BVAP districts would not be so devastating if we could impute the results for this range from data just above or below it.
Johnson caused several additional 30-50% BVAP districts to be created before the 1996 election.
In 1992, the year of their study, no whites won in districts with more than 50% BVAP, so they cannot tell us how whites elected from majority black districts might have voted on the floor of the House.
9) As shown, the same basic functional relationship holds in all three cases, even in the 1970s when a greater number of districts with 30-50% BVAP existed, thus reinforcing our original findings.
6 of Lublin (1997): Southern Democrats have ideology scores close to those of Congress overall, and they do not change significantly over the relevant 0-40% BVAP region.
Estimating the direct relationship between district composition and the resulting voting behavior of the elected representative captures all the indirect effects, all the factors that may change with the percentage BVAP and affect either electoral outcomes or a representative's roll-call voting decisions.
10% BVAP, the decline in the North was greater, while for districts above this mark the southern decline was more pronounced.
In particular, we calculate members' expected LCCR score given the level of BVAP in their district and the subgroup [Theta] from which the representative is drawn:
Figure 3 summarizes the relation between BVAP and LCCR in each subgroup.
The row labeled "Pr(F)" provides the probability value for an F-test of the models LCCR = a + b [multiplied by] BVAP and LCCR = a + b [multiplied by] s(BVAP), where s([center dot]) denotes a nonparametric smoothing spline.
The percentage of BVAP may thus have its largest effect by influencing the distribution from which a representative is drawn; that is, in determining whether the elected representative is a Republican, a nonblack Democrat, or a black Democrat.