ERIREmployment Rights and Industrial Relations (Dublin, Ireland)
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His answer is that the ERIR debate is an example of groupthink stemming from an economic elite of New Keynesians, "many of whom trained at the same university under the same teacher.
Montier also cites recent econometric research that concludes there is little evidentiary support for the idea that trend rate of economic growth drives ERIR, and he presents a table of widely varying estimates (ranging from -5% to +12%) of what ERIR should be.
Further pause should stem from the claim by John Williams -- one of the leading theoreticians of ERIR and Yellen's successor as San Francisco Fed president -- that "the natural rate of interest is assumed to change over time due to various unobservable influences.