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EWMA |
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For this analysis, we ran the mixed EWMA and regression model on daily counts of the original ESSENCE ILI group, as well as on counts of the new ILI-large and ILI-small groups. Some of the new features include Rainbow, EWMA (exponentially weighted moving average) and Poisson EWMA control charts; box and whisker plot for managers; serial device interfacing that allows two-way I/O using device command strings; viewing of engineering drawings in both JPG and BMP format; and much more. The Standard EWMA estimator with a normality assumption (used in JP Morgan's RiskMetrics[R] model) is inefficient and leads to understating the true value of risk if the asset returns are fat-tail distributed. |
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