89-90) plagued the FCSN program from the onset and introduced several other corresponding uncertainties.
In our study, while a suitable proxy for the FCSN program was not readily available (from a size perspective, FSCN represented the largest software investment/development effort to date), data obtained from the Joint Strike Fighter (7) (JSF) program (JSF software component was one-fifth the size of the FCSN program) were extrapolated and fitted accordingly to mirror the size of the FCS.
1 trillion in light of the risks posed by requirements uncertainty and the FCSN cost estimates provided by two independent sources--the Cost Analysis Improvement Group (CAIG) and the Institute of Defense Analyses (IDA) (Congressional Budget Office, 2006).
The independent belief functions based on the CAIG and IDA, which inferred basic probability assignments associated with each of the FCSN risk factors (requirements, integration, estimation risk, etc.
Note that the FCSN software effort has been decomposed into six components: Combat Identification, Battle Command and Mission Execution, Network Management System, Small Unmanned Ground Vehicle, Training Common Component, and System of Systems Common Operating Environment (GAO, 2008b, pp.
4 trillion for the FCSN as opposed to the current $5.
For example, assuming that the contract for the FCSN includes an option for Strategy A, program managers must then be willing to exercise the compound sequential option when they observe that five of the six software components are at risk due to uncertainties.
4 trillion is computed based on: (a) value of the FCSN program (future value less operating costs, i.
At the time of this study, the JSF software acquisition effort represented the largest development effort after the FCSN.