The ad-valorem duties applied to United States imports of printing and writing paper in the GFPM were 1.
One source of uncertainty lies in the GFPM structure and parameter estimates.
According to the GFPM projections, the total world production of printing and writing paper would hardly change from 2007 to 2020 due to the United States duties (Table 2).
The shifts in wood supply assumed in the GFPM were consistent with the changes in production predicted in the RPA between 2000 and 2030 (0.
In the GFPM, each country exports to, and imports from, the world market.
paper production, while the GFPM did not, reflecting its focus on long-term trends (Buongiorno et al.
Similarly, the GFPM predicted little change in the world real price of plywood and particleboard.
The GFPM projections suggest that Japan will increase slightly its imports of industrial roundwood and wood pulp out to 2030, but it will no longer be the largest market for these products, as its share of global imports will decline to 10.
The GFPM projects large growth in China's imports of all products.
As projected by the GFPM, China's imports would consist of final goods as well as raw materials and intermediate products.
The GFPM projections show the United States will increase the value and its share of exports of industrial roundwood and other paper and paperboard by 2030.
If exports of logs are banned or limited, there will be a cost (reduced welfare) to the country that could be computed with the GFPM.