Portuguese sovereign remains heavily indebted with a GGGD ratio of 127% versus the 'BBB' median of 41% and it is the third highest in the eurozone.
While this deficit projection does not fully meet the medium-term objective of the Stability and Growth Pact, it paves the way for a firm decline in the GGGD path over the medium term as the primary surplus is expected to stabilise at around 2.
Its projections for France's GGGD
ratio are significantly higher than the 'A' median of 49 percent and '' median of 27 percent.
2002b), 'ICT investment and growth accounts for the European Union, 1980-2000', GGGD
Research Memorandum, no.
Fitch's previously projected GGGD
to peak at 94 percent and had expected it to decline more quickly to below 90 percent by 2017.
Fitch has previously stated that GGGD
failing to stabilise below 100 per cent of GDP and on a firm downward path towards 90 per cent over the medium term would likely result in a downgrade of the UK's sovereign ratings.
3 per cent of GDP, the agency's position is that if GGGD
is above 100 per cent of GDP with no "firm downward path towards 90 per cent" over a medium term, then a downgrade is very likely.
Our baseline medium-term assumptions of 2% GDP growth and gradually increasing effective interest rates would lead GGGD
to decline to around 80% in 2022, an average 4pp decline annually.
When excluding domestic arrears, we estimate GGGD
at around 60% at end-2017, compared with a 'B' median of 56.
Fitch projects that GGGD
and the government's preferred measure 6 public sector net debt excluding financial interventions (PSND ex) 6 will peak in 2015-16 at over 97% and 80% of GDP, respectively, before registering a decline in 2016-17.