The funds rate prescriptions start rising in late 2009 for the rule with the LMCI and in late 2010 for the rule with the unemployment gap.
One is that the estimated rule using the LMCI puts greater weight on the level of activity (a coefficient of 2.
It shows the stance of monetary policy as measured by the Wu-Xia shadow federal funds rate (solid black line) and the prescriptions of the two estimated rules (the gray dashed line for the estimated rule with the LMCI and the blue dashed line for the rule with the unemployment gap).
Prescriptions from the estimated rule using the LMCI remained below the shadow funds rate until July 2011, while prescriptions from the rule using the unemployment gap remained below the shadow rate until June 2012.
Specifically, starting in the second half of 2011, the stance of monetary policy as measured by the Wu-Xia shadow rate fell below the funds rate prescribed by the estimated rule using the LMCI, and starting in the second half of 2012, the stance of monetary policy fell below the funds rate prescribed by the rule using the unemployment gap.
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