2011), the reliability diagram and the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve for method 3 indicate that the MEFP precipitation ensembles are reliable (left plot) and capture very well the discriminatory skill (right plot) in the single-valued predictions.
5[degrees] grid is available for the MEFP calibration.
underestimation of the probability of precipitation and, more problematically, large precipitation amounts), which underlines the need for a systematic and comprehensive evaluation of MEFP ensembles across the different RFCs.
MEFP has recently been enhanced to ingest forecast from the NCEP's latest Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), which was implemented in February 2012.
In the future, MEFP should include forecasts from other NWP models [e.
2009; Hopson and Webster 2010; in the latter, postprocessing is also applied to multimodel ensembles), bias correction similar to the MEFP temperature methodology for long-term ESP streamflow ensembles (Wood and Schaake 2008), a Bayesian postprocessor for ensemble streamflow forecasts (Reggiani et al.
Since MEFP generates bias-corrected hydrometeorological ensembles that reflect the input uncertainty, EnsPost is calibrated with simulated streamflow (i.
Based on the historical initial conditions, flow ensemble hindcasts are produced by the Hydrologic Processor for each hindcast date using the MEFP precipitation and temperature ensemble hindcasts, and then postprocessed by EnsPost.
The comparisons of dependent and independent validation results for MEFP and EnsPost in the previous studies (e.
The comparison of the CRPSS values for the raw flow ensembles and the postprocessed flow ensembles shows that most of the flow forecast skill comes from the MEFP component, with limited impact of EnsPost.