The top panel shows five lines of results for the NFPB deflator: the actual change, the simulated change assuming the actual behavior of the productivity growth trend acceleration variable, the counterfactual simulation that suppresses the same productivity variable to zero, the simulation error (the first line minus the second), and the counterfactual effect of the change in trend productivity growth (the second line minus the third).
As in the simulation results presented earlier, the simulation errors for the NFPB deflator are very small, with no drift at all in the final four quarters of the simulation period.
73 * NFPB sector trend labor share, (c) 1-8 lags Productivity acceleration, (d) 1st lag -0.
Translating this directly into an overstatement in the productivity data would reduce output per hour in the NFPB sector in 2003:2 by 0.
This requires going beyond a discussion of trend productivity growth performance to examine the determinants of future growth in the working-age population, in hours per employee, and in the mix and payroll-to-household employment ratio terms that are needed to translate productivity growth in the NFPB sector into an equivalent growth rate for real GDP in the economy as a whole.
5 percent a year, as my central projection of future productivity growth in the NFPB sector.
Discussion of hours per employee can be confusing, because there are separate measures of hours per employee in the NFPB sector and of hours per household employee in the total economy.
The usual concept of hours per employee, discussed previously, is calculated as aggregate hours in the NFPB sector divided by payroll employment in that sector.
Turning to the aggregate economy in the first column of table 11, I assume that hours per payroll employee fell at the same modest rate during 1987-2001 as in the NFPB sector.
I have already settled on a future growth rate of NFPB output per hour of 2.
Even though NFPB productivity is forecast to grow 0.
Initial research for this paper used private nonagricultural payroll employment from the Current Employment Survey (CES0500000001) as a proxy for NFPB employment.