t] is estimated by using Norges Bank's default prediction model SEBRA Basic, see Bernhardsen and Larsen (2007).
The shipping industry, as represented by Norwegian firms in the SEBRA database, reflects smaller and more home-based shipping than international shipping.
Larsen, 2007: "Modeling credit risk in the enterprise sector - further development of the SEBRA Model", Economic Bulletin, 3/2007, pp.
Norges Bank's SEBRA model estimates bankruptcy probabilities using key figures calculated on the basis of enterprises' annual accounts, and information on their age, size and industry classification.
This broad use of the SEBRA model has over time provided useful experience and ideas for further development over the years.
In this article, we look more closely at various needs for the further development of the SEBRA model.
In the original SEBRA model, the probability of bankruptcy is modelled mainly using key figures for an enterprise's earnings, financial strength and liquidity, see Eklund et al.
17) Syversten (2004) compares the prediction capability of the SEBRA
model with that of Moody's KMV Private Firm model for Norway.
model, which is used in the direct calculation of losses, shows that the probability of bankruptcy in enterprises is clearly lower than before the banking crisis.
The SEBRA model, which has been developed by Norges Bank, predicts bankruptcy probabilities on the basis of figures from the annual accounts of Norwegian limited companies.
The SEBRA model predicts the risk of bankruptcy using 12 explanatory variables connected to figures from the annual accounts and some other enterprise characteristics.
The disadvantage of the SEBRA model is that new information comes in only once a year and that there is a time lag of nine months between the end of the financial year and the time most accounts are available in the database.