Ye and Wiegert derive a nominal ZHR of about 200, with a disclaimer that "given the current weak dust production of the comet, rates could be much lower.
Vaubaillon thinks that a ZHR of 400 is "the best-case scenario," adding, "I would not bet on a meteor storm.
Maslov says, "Considering the high computed density and the high number of encountered trails, we can provide an approximate estimate for the ZHR of 100.
I would not be especially surprised by a ZHR of only 100; however it is my opinion that a stormlevel outburst is also possible.
Now that 1999 has confirmed for us the overall theory, we feel it is now reasonable to look in detail at these historical showers and reanalyze them in terms of the dust-trail theory -- that is, force a fit in 1833 to the predicted time to derive the ZHR -- and to consider what the experience of difficulty in counting the Leonids in 1999 might mean for previous storms, especially 1833 and 1966.
David Asher: I'm sure there is some complexity that we don't understand yet, but I feel reasonably confident that 1833, 1866, 1867, 1869, 1966, and 1999 could be made quite consistent with sensible adjustments -- which we haven't quantified yet -- to the peak ZHR values reported in the 19th century.
But even if the ZHR predictions of 15,000 to 25,000 for 2001 and 2002 had to be reduced, it's obvious that they're going to remain at storm level, and higher than the 1999 storm.
Our predictions for 2000 are generally for low activity -- less than 100 ZHR.
Michael Hann, who observed from Mounds, Oklahoma, felt he had seen a good shower: "A maximum ZHR of 100 was observed between 8:30 and 9:30 UT with several fireballs visible during the display.
A slow increase in activity was evident through about 8:00 when the ZHR was estimated at 70.