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Analysis of Competing Hypotheses" advocates the identification and analysis of alternative hypotheses rather than a single "most likely" conclusion.
(8) If a unit wants to train an analyst on topics such as critical thinking, mind mapping, (9) argument mapping, (10) or analysis of competing hypotheses, (11) then they are forced to send someone to courses held at the various national intelligence agencies in the Washington D.C.
(11.) For an explanation on analysis of competing hypotheses see Richards J.
Wrapping up their book, George and Bruce are cautiously optimistic that the intelligence lessons of the past several years, combined with a better appreciation of collection limitations and some new approaches to analysis (e.g., computer-aided
analysis of competing hypotheses and others), will lead to more objective and reliable intelligence assessments.
The techniques covered include industry analysis, competitive positioning analysis, business model analysis, SERVO analysis, supply chain management analysis, benchmarking analysis, McKinsey 75 analysis, shadowing, product line analysis, win/loss analysis, strategic relationship analysis, corporate reputation analysis, critical success factors analysis, country risk analysis, driving forces analysis, event and timeline analysis, technology forecasting, war giving, indications and warning analysis, historiographical analysis, interpretation of statistical analysis, competitor cash flow analysis,
analysis of competing hypotheses, and linchpin analysis.
Substantiation of hypotheses requires meaningful metrics of exposure and effect, and depends on exclusion and
analysis of competing hypotheses for the observations.
This means judgments are developed through a rigorous, scientifically based human process of
analysis of competing hypotheses. It proceeds from the identification of a full range of hypotheses (i.e., prospective answers to the research question), the evaluation of the evidence and assumptions for consistency or inconsistency with each hypothesis, and the identification of most-likely outcomes.
It is not enough to simply demonstrate techniques such as sorting, chronology and timeline analysis;
analysis of competing hypotheses (hypothesis testing); decision and event analysis; and matrix development--although these are, and will probably continue to be, the most frequently taught techniques.
Students also learn and apply some not-so-traditional tools for the I ntelligence Analyst (96B) and Signals Intelligence Analyst (98C) specialties such as analysis of competing COAs (ACC, also known as
analysis of competing hypotheses) and manipulation of the human intelligence (HUMINT)-based time event charts, association and activities matrices, and the link diagram (in both manual and automated formats).