In addition to the basis risk portion of livestock mortality in the location that the model inherently cannot explain, there is also the possibility of error if the model specification and parameters chosen based on the ALRMP sample imperfectly reflect the true state of the system in explaining area average livestock mortality.
The limited size of the ALRMP sample, however, precludes setting aside some of those data for out-of-sample performance evaluation.
Predicted seasonal area average mortality rates for studied locations, M([ndvi.sub.ls]), were first constructed based on the cluster-specific response functions established using the ALRMP livestock mortality data and location-specific NDVI data from 1982 to 2008.
According to 1999 census and ALRMP 2000-2008 data, these studied locations situate on areas range from 2,535 to 5,260 [km.sup.2] for the three locations in the Chalbi area in the north to 1,160 to 1,935 [km.sup.2] for the other four in the south (see Figure 1).
The GEF supported project will focus on at least five districts under the ALRMP and will have the following four components.
This component will provide support to enhance the ALRMP secretariat to support the implementation of the additional KACCAL mandate and activities.
An environmental assessment and management framework that was prepared for the Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP) will be revised as appropriate and disclosed.