George Stevenson (University of Wisconsin), Fred Kirshenmann (Iowa State University) and others suggest AOTM survival will depend on moving into this emerging "alternative" food area.
In this chart, the lower left quadrant (labeled the "Troubled Zone"), are the AOTM farms.
Rather than increasing volume of production, AOTM farmers might consider adding value to their output by moving out of commodity production and into direct marketing (quadrant one).
Unfortunately, even if AOTM farms are close enough to a "local" metropolitan market (and most are not), markets in general are not large enough to absorb their large volumes of output.
Quadrant two of figure 1, "the opportunity area," may represent the most likely option for the largest number of AOTM farms.
Helping to shift AOTM farmers to a more survivable quadrant of figure 1 may open up greater possibilities for farmers, their cooperatives and their larger communities.
For instance, the AOTM column and, to a lesser extent, the HOTS column often repeat their earlier speculation about rumored takeover targets.
Another issue we examine is the relative quality in terms of predictive accuracy of rumors published in the HOTS column versus those published in AOTM. In addition to analyzing the relative frequencies of rumors published in each column, we also examine rumor quality in terms of the impact of each of these columns on excess returns.
This represents all firms listed on the NYSE and AMEX that are the subject of a takeover rumor as published in the Wall Street Journal's HOTS column or AOTM column during a four year period from 1985 through 1988.
A first or initial rumor is defined as one where no previous takeover rumors concerning the target firm in question have been published in the HOTS and/or AOTM columns in the preceding 365 days.
Panel A of Table I reports that of the 871 total rumors, 172 were found in the HOTS column while the remaining 699 were found in AOTM. This is consistent with the more detailed write-up found in HOTS focusing on one or a few firms and the more cursory mention of many firms as found in AOTM.
First, we analyze all rumors, then all HOTS versus all AOTM rumors.