ATPSMAgricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model
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Taking into account the overall price elasticity, the ATPSM further distinguished the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes (which reflected the average demand for the total population) by age group, and focused on the prevalence elasticity.
In the ATPSM, cigarette use was directly related to the retail price relative to the prices of other goods, in accordance with economic theory.
We assumed the effects were the same in the ATPSM as in the United States model.
These percentages are similar to those in the United States, so that the same parameters were used in the youth access module for the ATPSM.
The ATPSM predicted an increase in the smoking rate to 39.8% between 2001 and 2002 due to a 17% reduction in the inflation-adjusted price of cigarettes (slightly offset by the addition of a media campaign).
If taxes were increased from the current 68% to 75% of the retail price (leading to a 28% price increase), the ATPSM predicted that smoking prevalence would decrease by 4.7% in 2005 relative to the status quo scenario in the same year.
We used the ATPSM to obtain short- and long-term projections of the effect of various tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and the number of deaths attributable to smoking.
The ATPSM provided preliminary estimates of future smoking rates and deaths attributable to smoking, and showed how tobacco control policies might be expected to change those outcomes.
In addition, the policy parameters for the ATPSM were based primarily on studies in the United States, Australia and European nations.