The impetus for this study was the observation that typical BLV and sales comparison (ALV) approaches often produce inconsistent results when estimating the underlying land values in timberland transactions for TIMO and REIT clients.
These same inputs were used in the study's BLV calculations so they would align with the comparable sales data.
When deriving a typical BLV, a standard discount rate of 5.25% was used.
These produced a "typical" BLV that became the baseline in the comparison.
From this computation, the value differential between the ALV and typical BLV was then determined for each of the seven comparable sales (this differential is referred to here as the LVD).
Sensitivity analysis was then used to identify the adjustment factors for each comparable sale that would create a BLV equal or near-equal to ALV, resulting in a minimal LVD.
By adjusting each of these variables independently through their ranges, while holding the other two variables constant at their baseline or typical levels, it was possible to determine how sensitive the BLV was to each adjustment as it approached ALV.
Of course, variables like road access, size/ shape, or proximity to city centers affect comparable sale values, but it is important to recognize this analysis focuses solely on the input variables that drive BLV.
In the analysis, independently calculating BLV at each level within the adjusted range of each driving variable permitted simulation of a BLV that was near the ALV level.
In Comparable Sale 4, the discount rate levels for both a typical BLV and the simulated BLV corresponding to ALV were 5.25% and 3.35%, respectively.
The site index (at base age 25) for the typical BLV and simulated BLV modeled at the ALV level were 67 and 96, respectively, leaving a difference of 29, as illustrated in Exhibit 5.
The level of stumpage price appreciation, for both the typical BLV and a simulated BLV corresponding to ALV, were 1.00% and 3.20%, respectively, leaving a difference of 2.20%, which is illustrated in Exhibit 6.