CGBCRCentre for Growth and Business Cycle Research (University of Manchester, UK)
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Recent empirical research at CGBCR has focussed on the prediction of business cycle expansion and recession regimes.
Full details of these models, including estimated coefficients, can be found at the CGBCR website, http://www.
We would also like to acknowledge that this paper draws heavily on work with our CGBCR colleagues, Chris Birchenhall and Mike Artis, without implicating them in any errors herein.