ERIR

AcronymDefinition
ERIREmployment Rights and Industrial Relations (Dublin, Ireland)
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The study revealed that the following substances were all found to be ductile: yttrium-silver (YAg), yttrium-copper (YCu), dysprosium-copper (DyCu), cerium-silver (CeAg), erbium-silver (ErAg), erbium-gold (ErAu), erbium-copper (ErCu), erbium-iridium (ErIr), holmium-copper (HoCu), neodymium-silver (NdAg), yttrium-indium (YIn), and yttrium-rhodium (YRh).
In a new white paper from the famed hedge fund GMO called "The Idolatry of Interest Rates," the iconoclastic investor takes on the wonkish but ubiquitous subject of the "equilibrium real interest rate" (ERIR).
Former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke devoted his first blog post to the subject; his successor, Janet Yellen, is said to have mentioned ERIR 25 times in recent speech; and the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland called ERIR "the" pressing issue today, Montier recounts.
Economists Larry Summers and Paul Krugman are among the cognoscenti who have weighed in on ERIR, which posits that there is an inherent rate of interest that is consistent with full employment that policymakers can discover in their efforts to set rates correctly.
His answer is that the ERIR debate is an example of groupthink stemming from an economic elite of New Keynesians, "many of whom trained at the same university under the same teacher."
Montier also cites recent econometric research that concludes there is little evidentiary support for the idea that trend rate of economic growth drives ERIR, and he presents a table of widely varying estimates (ranging from -5% to +12%) of what ERIR should be.
Further pause should stem from the claim by John Williams -- one of the leading theoreticians of ERIR and Yellen's successor as San Francisco Fed president -- that "the natural rate of interest is assumed to change over time due to various unobservable influences."
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