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After switching from ZC MP to GFDL MP in the stretched-grid fvGFS (Stretched_G), the forecast skill improves for both hemispheres and the CONUS.
By contrast, the fvGFS simulations do not present any
However, the fvGFS, especially the locally high-resolution stretched-grid version, underestimates the precipitation along the west coast of Oregon and overestimates the precipitation along the Cascade Mountains (Figs.
Figures 4b and 4c show the differences in ETS between the two fvGFS versions and the GFS.
4d, both the GFS and the two versions of fvGFS overestimate the precipitation (BIAS > 1) during the entire 5 days, especially for precipitation amounts greater than 25 mm day-1.
This indicates that the higher-resolution fvGFS is more skillful in predicting the precipitation probability in a targeted neighborhood.
Figure 5 shows the diurnal phase [local standard time (LST)] and diurnal amplitude (mm [day.sup.-1]) of 3-hourly precipitation from Stage IV, the GFS, and the two fvGFS versions for all of 2015 and 2016.
Both versions of the fvGFS are better able to produce intense precipitation rates during the first six hours of the forecast compared to the operational GFS (Fig.
Examples of prediction of specific weather events are provided to demonstrate the convection-permitting capability of the fvGFS. This section investigates two different cases: a squall line on 1 May 2017 and Hurricane Harvey on 25 August 2017.
For the squall line case, both the GFS and the two fvGFS versions correctly predict the northeastward movement of the convective systems.
As a milestone of the NGGPS development, the prototype of NGGPS developed at GFDL, called fvGFS, is presented in detail to provide a reference for future research and possible operational model development.
First, the large-scale forecast skill of the variable-resolution fvGFS is comparable to that of the GFS in the Northern Hemisphere and is improved over the CONUS region when the GFDL cloud microphysics is used.
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