Financial Risk Management with Bayesian Estimacion of GARCH
Models: Theory and Applicacions., 2008.
Para lograr dicho objetivo, se utiliza una metodologia relativamente reciente y complementaria, que integra dos modelos generalizados autorregresivos con heterocedasticidad condicional (GARCH
y TARCH), y la estimacion via copulas.
model (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity), proposed by Bollerslev (1986) is a generalization of the ARCH process created by Engle (1982), in which the conditional variance is not only the function of lagged random errors, but also of lagged conditional variances.
Further, the results from GARCH
(1, 1) showed that exchange rate, interest rate, and money supply affected the stock return volatility in Nigerian markets.
Ling and McAleer (2002a, 2002b) derived the regularity conditions of a GARCH
model as follows: E[[[epsilon].sup.2.sub.t]] = [omega]/1-[alpha] - [beta] < [infinity] if [alpha] + [beta] < 1, and E [[[epsilon].sup.4.sub.t]] < [infinity] if k[[alpha].sup.2] + 2[alpha][beta] + [[beta].sup.2] < 1, where k is the conditional fourth moment of [z.sub.t].
As stock market volatility is one of the most interesting topics in finance, different models have been utilized to measure it (e.g., autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) model of Engle 1982, generalized ARCH (GARCH
) model of Bollerslev 1986, the exponential GARCH
(EGARCH) model of Nelson 1991).
However, a big bias still exists in traditional GARCH
option pricing model.
With regard to the remaining commodities, the T-GARCH model collapses into the standard GARCH
form, where the [alpha] and [beta] coefficients are following the [alpha] + [beta] < 1 relation that guarantees stationarity of the variance.
So it's surprising (Garch
calls him a breath of fresh air) when he came out to introduce each dish, to see a young, short, tattoed Pinoy who could very well be mistaken for a Pinoy hip hop/rock artist.
For the said purpose, pair wise tests of equality of variances, ARCH-LM tests and multivariate dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) GARCH
models are applied.
As return-based methods, the GARCH
models are designed using data on closing prices, i.e.
We use the TGARCH model for analyzing spillover dynamics which has an additional advantage over the GARCH
model in capturing asymmetric effects.