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The effects of the United States countervailing duty on CFS from China, Indonesia, and the Republic of Korea were obtained by comparing two GFPM projections, or scenarios.
As imports of CFS paper have increased considerably in recent years, especially from Korea, China, and Indonesia, the GFPM was recalibrated with data from 1992 to 2006 (FAO 2007), with the method described in Zhu et al.
The ad-valorem duties applied to United States imports of printing and writing paper in the GFPM were 1.08 percent for Korea, 4.29 percent for China, and 4.67 percent for Indonesia.
The accuracy of the predicted policy impact depends on the data and assumptions used in the GFPM. One source of uncertainty lies in the GFPM structure and parameter estimates.
According to the GFPM projections, the total world production of printing and writing paper would hardly change from 2007 to 2020 due to the United States duties (Table 2).
The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM): Structure, Estimation, and Applications.
In the GFPM, the demand for raw wood and intermediate products derives from the demand for final products through input-output coefficients and corresponding manufacturing costs that describe technologies in each country, subject to available capacity, which changes endogenously (Buongiorno et al.
In the GFPM, each country exports to, and imports from, the world market.
Manufacturing costs in the GFPM, calculated from production, consumption, and price data (Buongiorno et al.
Similarly, the GFPM predicted little change in the world real price of plywood and particleboard.
The GFPM projections suggest that Japan will increase slightly its imports of industrial roundwood and wood pulp out to 2030, but it will no longer be the largest market for these products, as its share of global imports will decline to 10.
The GFPM projects large growth in China's imports of all products.
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- GFP Recognition After Bleaching