GMENACGraduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee
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is the shortage predicted by GMENAC never materialized.
the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) of
While it was subsequently determined that the GMENAC projections were not accurate, there was not a significant rebound in the graduation rate in these programs.
Studies that followed the GMENAC report used demand-based assumptions to project future physician supply and need.
HMO studies have found that GMENAC projections of need are excessive; they projected the need at 50 to 60 physicians per 100,000 enrollees.[8-11] Tarlov[12] recommended that lower rates of physicians need to be used for HMOs than for FFS systems and called the HMO system the third compartment.
Critiques of the original GMENAC study also suggest that the reliability of the process is questionable.
"GMENAC Forecasts 38% Increase in Number of Otolaryngologists by 1990 and Says That's About Right - But Is It?" Colorado Medicine (July): 258-61.
Finally, the GMENAC study projected an increase in nurse practitioners and physicians' assistants.
The second factor in the shortage is the belief perpetuated by the GMENAC study that there are already more rheumatologists than are needed.
* (b) estimates of need reported in the GMENAC study (Model B)
"Report of the GMENAC: Summary Report." Washington, D.C.; U.S.
The GMENAC report of 1980, which projected an overall physician surplus for the next two decades, led many to conclude that the overall increase in physicians would take care of problems of geographic and specialty maldistribution.