With the recent decline in GPDI
, there has been increased interest in timelier and higher frequency estimates.
Slowing of the economy from the weakening technology and manufacturing sectors in the first half of this year help produce a decline in GPDI for the first time since the 1990-1991 national economic recession.
Non-residential investment led by durable equipment (machinery, computers, communications equipment, etc.) and software was the largest source of economic growth among the components of GPDI for several years.
The effects of the CCC-related change may be seen by comparing the mean absolute revisions of the estimates of GPDI and of fixed investment.
With the exception of the current-dollar advance estimates of fixed investment, the mean revisions for GPDI and fixed investment are negative.
For GPDI, just 16 percent of the revisions are less than 2 percentage points, and 61 percent are more than 5 percentage points.
However, the effects of revisions to change in business inventories can be approximated by comparing the dispersion measures for the three current quarterly estimates of gross private domestic investment (GPDI), which includes change in business inventories, with those for fixed investment, which does not.
The effects of the first of these changes, the revised classification of CCC transactions, may be seen by comparing the dispersions for the estimates of GPDI and of fixed investment.
Gross investment -- which is the sum of gross private domestic investment (GPDI), gross government investment, and net foreign investment -- was revised up $8.6 billion for 1993 and $3.4 billion for 1994, down $13.7 billion for 1995, and up $7.1 billion for 1996.
(The chain-type price index for gross domestic purchases reflects only the prices of PCE, GPDI, and government spending.) Although the revisions to export and import prices were similar for 1996, they were not offsetting in GDP, because imports have a larger (negative) weight.
(2)Gross domestic purchases is calculated as the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), gross private domestic investment (GPDI
), and government purchases.
The I-O estimates for goods are based on the commodity-flow method; the NIPA estimates are based primarily on the retail-control method.(3) For services, the difference is more than accounted for by revised BEA estimates of international transactions in services.(4) For gross private domestic investment (GPDI
) and net exports of goods and services, the differences also reflect the incorporation in the I-O estimates of newly available source data: For GPDI
, revised Census Bureau estimates of new construction and revised Department of Agriculture estimates of farm inventories; for net exports, revised BEA estimates of international transactions in services.