(10) A recent study showed that heat vulnerability was very common in Quebec, with 87% of older Quebecers presenting simultaneously with at least two medical, social or environmental conditions previously identified as HRHO predictors.
To effectively prevent HRHO, it is important to identify key predictors.
There is a need to examine predictors of HRHO using a cohort design which has stronger potential to increase internal validity and clarify the relationships.
The aims of this prospective cohort study were to 1) describe the incidence of HRHO, including EDP, hospitalizations and deaths over a five-year period and 2) assess their medical, social and environmental predictors among older adults living in Southern Quebec.
The OAHVI was developed to assess the cumulative risk of HRHO. A score ranging from 0 to 9 was calculated from the sum of categories of factors previously shown (1 point/category).
(27) HRHO were defined as all-cause EDP, hospitalization (excluding day surgery) or death occurring during a HTD between May 15 and September 15 of years 2006 through 2010.
Final independent and significant predictors of HRHO were the same for both outcomes (Table 3).
Furthermore, for each additional risk factor or absence of protective factor, the likelihood of HRHO over five years increased by approximately 40%.
(13) Although disability and social participation may be correlated, we observed that they made distinct contributions to HRHO. Needing help in ADL signals an inability to care for oneself, which could lead to difficulties in achieving appropriate actions in order to prevent HRHO.
A major challenge when studying predictors of HRHO is determining the distinctive role of treatment versus underlying pathology being treated.
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