Starting with the 1500 UTC HRRR run, the forecast location of the convection started to change (Figs.
The 1200 UTC HRRR correctly forecast the general synoptic-scale (i.
Example of an HRRR
forecast (12 h), based on its 3-km CONUS grid, with observed radar reflectivity (dBZ).
The HRRR model is short-term, looking 15 hours out.
As these are not fine-grained mesoscale models, there are no "radar forecasts" like there are with the HRRR.
is a tool delivering forecasters a more accurate depiction of hazardous weather to help improve our public warnings and save lives.
CWA County Warning Area GSD Global Systems Division HRRR
High Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA/NWS operational weather prediction system LAPS Local Analysis and Prediction System, also referred to as traditional LAPS SBCAPE Surface-based CAPE vLAPS Variational version of LAPS, also known as STMAS (Space and Time Multiscale Analysis System).
Name Run time Update time 3-km NCAR Two 48-h simu- 0000 UTC ARW ensemble lations run daily 1200 UTC forecasts 3-km ARW en- Based on 1200 1200 UTC semble sensitiv- UTC 3-km ity analyses ARW 4-km WRF Two 36-h simu- 0000 UTC NSSL weather lations run daily 1200 UTC forecasts 3-km HRRR
15-h forecasts Hourly forecasts CSU 4-km WRF 39-h forecasts 1200 UTC forecasts Time available Initialization Name to community approach 3-km NCAR 0000 MDT Cycling WRF- ARW ensemble 1200 MDT DART analyses forecasts 3-km ARW en- 1300 MDT -- semble sensitiv- ity analyses 4-km WRF 2300 MDT NAM analyses NSSL weather MOO MDT forecasts 3-km HRRR
Analysis time plus RAP analyses forecasts 2 h CSU 4-km WRF 1500 MDT GFS analyses forecasts TABLE 2.
WindLogics incorporated forecasts from these improved NOAA models into machine learning energy prediction algorithms, while the AWS Truepower team developed and operated in real time an experimental nine-member optimized ensemble forecast system for WFIP that utilized RAP and HRRR for initial and boundary conditions.
Because of the focus on short-term forecasts (up to 15 h), the principal NOAA models used during WFIP were the hourly updated 13-kmresolution RUC, the 13-kmresolution RAP, and the 3-km-resolution HRRR (Fig.
Every hour, the HRRR model forecasts 15 hours into the future using the most recent observations available.
One hour before supplying a forecast, the HRRR creates a 3D image of the atmosphere.