With respect to the HWSM model, since the prior model had used a full-time workweek definition of roughly 36 hours, the net effect of this change will be to reduce the effective size of the workforce by roughly 10%, although each RN within the model will have the same weight relative to each other as before.
Applying the HWSM method of counting an FTE to the Cohort method (using 40 hours as the base estimate of a full-time RN) results in a 0.
The HWSM model distinguishes between RNs and APRNs (nurse practitioners, nurse midwives, nurse anesthetists, and clinical nurse specialists).
This is necessary because this model relies on data going back to 1979, unlike the HWSM.
For each forecast year, the HWSM simulates a fixed number of 152,000 new RNs with demographic characteristics mirroring the NLN (2013) survey to enter the workforce (see Table 5).
Thus, the concept of "new entry" is implicit in the Cohort model but explicit in the HWSM model and, consequently, comparisons are not straightforward.
These figures are slightly below the HWSM figures, but after attrition is accounted for in the HWSM, the amount of overall net entry is broadly similar.
To assess whether these numbers of entering RNs are reasonable, the team investigated entry trends obtained from the 2008 National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses in the United States (NSSRN) (DHHS, 2010) along with data from the NCLEX first-time domestic test takers (used by HWSM in its explicit entry assumptions).
5%), although the HWSM estimates a slightly larger number of FTE RNs at any given point in time.
Comparison of estimates produced by the Cohort and HWSM.
Total registered nurse workforce supply forecast from the Cohort model and HWSM.
The HWSM model, in relying on the number of NCLEX test takers in the baseline model year, is sensitive to possibilities that year may be atypical or unrepresentative of future trends.