Seasonal SST (left) and anomaly (right) for (a),(b) DJF 2016/17; (c),(d) MAM 2017; (e),(f) JJA
2017; and (g),(h) SON 2017.
Caption: Figure 6: Rainfall and SST (averaged over 50 S-50 N, 200-200 E) correlations: (a) correlation coefficient of the Bega (ONDJ) rainfall trend and SST raw; (b) correlation coefficient of the Belg (FMAM) rainfall trend and SST raw; (c) correlation coefficient of the Kiremt (JJAS
) rainfall trend and SST raw; (d) correlation coefficient of the annual rainfall trend and SST raw.
###Hot Summer (JJA
Their results are focused on the summer season (JJAS
) only, and show that after the 1970s there appears a dominant mode of covariability between global tropical SSTS and WA precipitation that explains the 60% of the covariance and that relates a decrease (increase) of precipitation in the whole WA with anomalously cold (warm) SSTS in the GG and the Maritime Continent, and anomalously warm (cold) SSTS in the eastern tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean (Figure 2, fourth row).
Ethiopia, with the exception of its southeastern lowlands, South Sudan, and southern Sudan Republic receive their main rainfall during JJAS
. Normal to above-average rainfall, ranging from 110% to 200% of the seasonal mean, dominated the region in 2017, including unseasonal rain over the southern half of GHA (Fig.
Figure 1g shows that summer [June-September (JJAS
)] Sahel rainfall dropped dramatically from the 1950s to the 1970s, which was also associated with the onset of the AMV cool phase.
All the models were integrated from May 1 to September 30 for the summer season (JJAS
Although biases are present, the model is able to simulate the June-to-September (JJAS
) mean rainfall and low-level winds reasonable well compared to observations and other models.
Time series analysis of rainfall is carried out for each station for the JJAS
Some felt that an in-depth analysis of monsoon system processes and features was most important (as was later completed, see For Further Reading), another that winds and soil moisture in summer as well as the thermal low were most important, while another responded that moisture flux in JJAS
was most important.
In particular, scattered negative anomaly over eastern North Atlantic in JJAS
, increasing negative one offshore Florida Gulf coast from ONDJ, and negative precipitation anomalies over Europe during ONDJ and NDJF.
In northern Ethiopia (7[degrees]-14[degrees]N, 36.5[degrees]40.5[degrees]E, NE) during June-September (JJAS
) of 2015 and in southern Africa (13.5[degrees]-27[degrees]S, 26.5[degrees]-36[degrees]E, SA) during December-February (DJF) of 2015/16, main growing seasons rains were extremely poor.