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The initial version was a simple average of DSHP and GFDI, but HWFI and LGEM were added beginning in 2008.
The overall performance of the intensity guidance is fairly similar to that for the AL, except that the ICON is not quite as accurate as LGEM at the longer forecast times and GHMI was better than SHF5 at all forecast times.
DeMaria (2010) showed that the statistical-dynamical LGEM intensity errors decreased by up to 30% when the forecast tracks were replaced by the best-track positions while keeping all other model inputs the same as what were available in real time.
Navy are underway to improve the WP and SH consensus forecasts by replacing the underlying statistical-dynamical model STIPS with the more advanced LGEM and SHIPS model formulations.
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