LGEMLocal Government East Midlands (UK)
LGEMLogistic Growth Equation Model (statistical intensity forecast model)
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DeMaria (2010) showed that the statistical-dynamical LGEM intensity errors decreased by up to 30% when the forecast tracks were replaced by the best-track positions while keeping all other model inputs the same as what were available in real time.
Navy are underway to improve the WP and SH consensus forecasts by replacing the underlying statistical-dynamical model STIPS with the more advanced LGEM and SHIPS model formulations.
Model Type Years (AL) Years (EP) SHFR Statistical 1989-2000 1989-2000 SHF5 Statistical 2001-12 2001-12 SHIP Statistical--dynamical 1992-2012 1996-2012 DSHP Statistical--dynamical 2000-12 2000-12 LGEM Statistical--dynamical 2006-12 2006-12 GFDI Dynamical 1996-2012 1997-2012 GHMI Dynamical 2006-12 2006-12 HWFI Dynamical 2007-12 2007-12 ICON Consensus 2006-12 2006-12 Table 2.