The Monte Carlo simulation method
has a predictive role, so it was preferred, in this paper, to the classical econometric type of modelling, as a solution to a complex problem of scenario and forecasting, in a context characterized by a high degree of uncertainty.
Therefore, this paper uses Vanke as the case to establish a quantitative decision making model of land banking based on Monte Carlo Simulation Method, which is perceived to be able to improve the decision making process of real estate enterprises.
Due to the flexibility of the Monte Carlo Simulation method, some internal or external factors which may be ignored in the demo can be easily added to the model, once the factors can be measured as probability distribution.
Lastly, this research applied the Monte Carlo Simulation method to develop a land banking decision model.
Generation of random numbers with predefined probability distribution functions is one of the most important applications of Monte Carlo simulation method.
The conditional probability of liquefaction has been determined according to the probabilistic methods, Monte Carlo simulation method and the Taylor's Series Reliability Method, Wolff (1994); USACE (1997, 1998); Duncan (2000).