One critical stage of PDARS in the air refueling process is the docking of the probe and drogue .
One of the keys to the success of aerial refueling for PDARS is the successful docking between the probe and drogue.
Firstly, according to the prior information during the docking phase of PDARS, a reasonable assumption for the distribution of the drogue center position under atmospheric disturbance is provided.
For the simplification of the model of docking success probability, the prior information and notations of probe-drogue docking for PDARS are described as follows.
A NASA flight test approach to an aerial refueling system indicates that the drogue randomly meanders in the lateral and vertical displacement by as much as the drogue diameter (approximately 61 cm), where the atmospheric turbulence is considered, during the docking phase of PDARS .
Therefore, during the docking phase of PDARS, it can be reasonably assumed that the lateral and vertical disturbed drogue motions are independent.
The collected real probe-drogue aerial refueling videos, as shown in http://pan.baidu.com/s/1mi31gQ8, indicate that, during the docking phase of PDARS, frontal images of the drogue can be reasonably expected, and the probe can be approximately perpendicular to the drogue end plane.
Note that it can be meaningful and helpful to model the random factors in PDARS and give its statistical probability model using statistical methods based on the experimental data.
(1) This paper numerically simulates the docking success probability during the docking phase of PDARS. Considering the facts that the receiver aircraft operates docking maneuver when the probe is in front of the drogue, and the atmospheric disturbance affects the movement of the drogue, this paper provides the theoretical estimation of probe-drogue docking success probability before docking maneuver when the probe is in front of the equilibrium position of drogue center.
(2) Reasonable assumptions for the distribution of the drogue center position under atmospheric disturbance are provided, according to the prior information during the docking phase of PDARS.