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However, the authors cannot find empirical evidence between primary school-age children out of school rates (female) and the variables used to analyze the effect of poverty and social exclusion (poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line and total vulnerable employment).
We assumed that: (i) the incremental capital output ratio stood at a weighted average of 3.7; (ii) the poverty headcount ratio in 2008 stood at 50 per cent (optimistic scenario); (iii) about 51.5 per cent of the total population were poor people living in rural areas with an annual urbanization rate of 0.76 per cent; and (iv) the total oil GDP at current market price stood at US$708 million (based on a 2011 estimate).
In less than a decade, per capita income in the country has nearly tripled and now exceeds $10,000." However, the poverty headcount ratio at the national poverty line is 18.1 percent.
Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 per day (PPP, percent of population)###...###49###...###40###...###26###...###20
The new estimates increased the poverty headcount ratio for rural areas from 28.3% using the 1993 methodology to nearly 42% using the Tendulkar methodology, which is very close to figures reported using the World Bank's US$1.25 per day poverty line (see Table 1).
For this we use the concept of poverty line income 21 and poverty headcount ratio (HCR) widely used in Pakistan in social impact assessment studies.
Data on the following variables are from the World Bank (2007): population, population growth, population density, labor force, urban population, age dependency ratio, surface area, gross national income (GNI), GNI per capita, GDP growth, and poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line.
A quick examination of a-convergence, based on estimated CV reveals that variation in human development indicators and the HDI have declined across states over the concerned period, while CVs of Poverty headcount ratio (HCR) and PCSDP have been consistently rising.
Further analysis of the past data under the new poverty line estimates the poverty headcount ratio at 63.3 percent in 2001-02, which has now fallen to 29.5 percent.
Unchecked food inflation has nullified the steps taken to eradicate poverty, and the poverty headcount ratio, which was 17.2 in 2007-08 according to the national poverty survey has increased.
annual %, 2002-06) 8.8 Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line 9.1 (% of pop., 2004)
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