De otro lado, el valor maximo del RMSPE
corresponde al modelo 1A, del MPPE y MAPE al 7B y del p * al 1B.
I will categorize a country as an underachiever if the RMSPE
of the forecast is greater than 50%, if 50% or more of the forecast error is due to systematic bias, and if forecasted growth is consistently above actual growth.
SDPE measures the dispersion of the forecast errors, and RMSPE
accounts for both the mean and the dispersion of the forecast errors.
As indicated in Table 2, the overall RMSPE
of log-population size for Model I is 1.
Resultados de estadisticos de evaluacion fuera del periodo de entrenamientos para el modelo FF bajo una estructura lineal ME grande Modelo FF Horizonte RMSE RMSPE
MAE MAPE LINLIN 1 0,5282 0,5674 0,2798 0,4703 0,2156 2 0,6052 0,979 0,5395 0,9128 0,5193 3 3,7388 8,9605 3,3774 6,4829 1,7671 4 1,2216 13,0758 1,0872 7,8228 1,4564 5 1,5995 1,0065 1,2924 0,9282 1,3092 Fuente: Calculos de los autores.
Para evaluar los pronosticos se usaron cuatro medidas de evaluacion de pronostico RMSE, MAE, RMSPE
= [square root of [SIGMA][(predicted - observed).
for six variables (production, productive area, productivity, price, local consumption and import consumption) were small (7-21%), indicating that the model was able to track all these variables.
As may be noted that RMSE and RMSPE
of RVM-B are both the smallest with the same SP.
The post-pre RMSPE
ranks are not 1 for any of the four states and the 'donor probability' is high for each estimate.
The lower the values of Bias, PRV, and RMSPE
, the better the goodness of fit.
The performance of the models was checked by cross validation and it was noted that Gaussian model has least value of RMSPE
so it was the best model.