SLOOSSenior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
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Specifically, our conditioning assumption has the SLOOS diffusion index falling to --1 percent in the third quarter of 2014 and declining by 1 percentage point in each of the next five quarters.
Each quarter last year, considerable numbers of banks indicated in the SLOOS that they had further tightened their credit policies for C&I loans (figure 7, bottom panel).
In addition, in response to special questions on CRE lending in the January 2009 SLOOS, significant net fractions of banks reported having tightened all queried loan policies in 2008.
In a response to a special question, some SLOOS respondents indicated that the shut-down of that market had led to an increased volume of CRE loans on their books in the latter part of the year.
Substantial fractions of SLOOS respondents reported tighter credit standards on such loans throughout 2008.
In addition, sizable net fractions of banks responding to the SLOOS reported having lowered credit limits on existing credit card accounts to both prime and nonprime borrowers, citing the less favorable economic outlook, reduced tolerance for risk, and declines in customer credit scores as important reasons for their moves.
Regarding the supply of mortgage credit, large fractions of commercial banks reported in the SLOOS that they had tightened credit standards on a broad range of residential mortgage products, a move that further impaired the ability of borrowers to refinance existing mortgages.
The table below presents standard statistical tests of the lead-lag relationship between the KCFSI and SLOOS measure.