According to the latest data (May 1999), the SMSAR and SDI have risen from their lows, and the SADR has risen just above zero.
Specifically, it shows the SMSAR of the Journal of Commerce (JOC) index of industrial prices.(3) The middle panel of the same chart shows how pervasive these upturns (and downturns) have been since 1986.
In 1990, however, the SMSAR and SDI rose simultaneously when the Gulf crisis began, but the SADR kept falling.
The SMSAR and SDI have both swung up noticeably this year, but the rise in the SADR has been relatively modest.
Thus, the evidence from the SADR appears to be less persuasive at this point than the indications from the SMSAR and SDI.