VLAPSVertical Line Array Prediction System
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We noted that forecasts had their limitations, as one forecaster pointed out that forecast quality is a function of initial condition (vLAPS analysis) and forecast model (ARW).
The entire list of comments on vLAPS performance in both 2D as a situational awareness tool and 3D vLAPS/ARW forecasts for nowcasting applications are available online (http://laps.noaa.gov/hwt/2013-ewp/20l 3-EWP -blog-vLAPS.pdf).
Related to those developments, forecasters reported that the 1-km vLAPS forecast captured a bow echo over southern Oklahoma and isolated supercell storms northwest of the Dallas-Ft.
This case evaluated the 2.5-km vLAPS surface analysis (2D configuration) for situational awareness.
The surface equivalent potential temperature, [[[theta].sub.e]] and wind produced from vLAPS surface analysis overlaid with observed regional radar reflectivity at 2245 UTC confirmed the tornadic storm with radar reflectivity as high as 70 dBZ in Fisher County (FS in Fig.
A forecaster noted that the vLAPS surface streamline analysis at 2330 UTC indicated convergence over FS, Scurry (SC), and Borden (BD) counties, which appeared to be concentrating higher [[theta].sub.e] values in that location, likely allowing the continued development of stronger convection (Fig.
These comments are quoted below with a response from vLAPS developers, where appropriate.
The issues associated with overdoing storm intensity, or producing an incorrect mode of convection, or missing convective cells were related to a lack of balance among humidity, cloud, and temperature in the current version of vLAPS.
Since the main focus of this study is the evaluation of vLAPS performance during 2013 -EWP, only limited results are presented here from the 2014-EWP experiment.
Recently, the vLAPS software was expanded with a ray-tracing procedure to construct simulated all-sky cloud imagery produced by the LAPS 3D cloud analysis, and vLAPS/ARW forecasts.
LAPS, including its new variational version (vLAPS), has been developed as a national and international community effort, led by the Global Systems Division of NOAA/ESRL.
The Experimental Warning Program (2013-EWP) of the Hazardous Weather Testbed was used as a platform for a real-time test of the utility of frequently updated high temporal and spatial resolution vLAPS analyses (in support of situational awareness) and ensuing forecasts (in support of nowcasting).