At the eighth session of the WGNE in 1992, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) presented verification results of tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts of operational global models by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers: JMA, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and the Met Office (UKMO; Muroi and Sato 1994).
As the WGNE marks 25 years since the inauguration of this intercomparison, it is an opportune time to review the achievements of the project and how much the accuracy of TC track forecasts by the global models has improved in each TC basin and over the globe.
This might be beyond the scope of the WGNE verification study, but the enhanced use of ensemble forecasts is of great importance in TC track forecasting.
TC track forecasts by operational NWP models have been evaluated in a consistent manner since 1991 under the JSC-CAS WGNE. This quarter-century-long effort is invaluable to evaluate the progress of the operational global NWP models as well as their performance over the tropics and subtropics.
This WGNE intercomparison clearly shows that TC track forecasts by operational global models have significantly improved over the last quarter century.
The JMA thanks the WGNE and each participating NWP center for the constant support for the intercomparison.
Baldwin, 2003: The WGNE assessment of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts.
Ishida, J., 2016: WGNE intercomparison of tropical cyclone track forecast.