WP48Wins Produced per 48
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First, the lack of a discontinuity in WP48 across draft rounds means that players in our data are comparable, even if first- and second-round picks in general are not.
(18) These results show that additional covariates greatly improve the fit of the regression--much of it from adding our performance measure, WP48, the only consistently statistically significant variable.
This contrasts with the impact of WP48, which has a strong, positive impact in all specifications.
Recall that the average NBA player has a WP48 of 0.100, while a star player is commonly defined as one who has value above 0.200.
The authors would like to thank Ashwin Alankar, David Berri, Jeffrey Chuang, Harry Gakidis, Matt Goldman, Eason Hahm, Cheng Ho, Alan Liu, Ted Mann, Benjamin Morris, Kenneth Shirley, Michael Shen, Thomas Shen, Richard Thaler, participants at the 5th Annual MIT Sloan Sports Conference, and the referees and editor for their helpful feedback and comments, and further to David Berri for providing the historical WP48 data.