47) The deficit levels in the Proposed Budget scenario in the outyears
are lower than both the BBEDCA baseline and the Adjusted Baseline figures.
Those massive outyear
cuts in federal spending that enabled OMB in planning years 1982 and 1985 to claim great savings in interest expense by artificially inflating baselines, as seen in Figure 6, are juxtaposed against years of little or no deficit reduction efforts, where the baselines for interest look flat or declining.
Current caps have values in the outyears
that are extremely hard to justify for the usual purposes of bureau budgeting, or simply good public policy.
When this occurs, a continuation or completion bill for these projects is created in the outyears
Budgeted fiscal 2012 results and outyear
projections conservatively indicate total general fund balance declines from $63.
Although the current forecast incorporates ongoing cost control in Medicaid and school aid, while prior forecasts assumed sharp spending increases based on then-current law, the forecast gap for fiscal 2014 is quite low and outyear
gaps appear manageable.
projections show further unrestricted general fund balance declines, they remain well above state minimum reserve requirements.
Based on recent years' financial performance, Fitch expects the district to continue to significantly outperform its outyear
projections, but notes that most of the solutions available to the district will be difficult to implement.
WORSENING BUDGET SHORTFALLS: Inability to control costs or over-reliance on reserve drawdowns to address outyear
budget gaps could result in rating pressure.
If enacted, the proposed budget would reduce the outyear
gap forecast to a manageable $715 million in fiscal 2014, rising to $3 billion in fiscal 2015 and $3.
fund balances would fail to meet the 3% state required reserves.
The revised financial plan, which incorporates loss of revenue from a temporary tax on high earners that is scheduled to roll off as planned after tax year 2011, projects outyear
general fund gaps at still relatively manageable levels by historical standards, rising from $3 billion-$3.