One method for quantifying the sensitivity of the HOPM predictions to variations in track and intensity is to calculate the coefficient of variation (coefficient of variation = standard deviation/ensemble mean) for each hurricane.
The HOPM prediction for Hurricane Ivan based on the OFCL 24 h prior to landfall had a relative error of 32.
If the HOPM outages were normally distributed, this range could be calculated using mean and standard deviation from the 1,000 scenarios (e.
If a model such as HOPM provides only a point estimate, it is not providing the information needed by risk-averse decision makers, limiting their ability to make well-supported decisions about prestorm preparation activities.
1) Small errors in the official track and/or intensity forecast can lead to large errors in the resulting HOPM outage prediction.
As such, the MCWSP realizations used to run the HOPM in this study can be considered to be relatively plausible TC track and intensity scenarios.